At noontime temperatures across the state ranged from the low 20’s in northern CT to the upper 20’s along the coast. NE winds are currently light at 10 mph. Winter Storm Warnings will start going into effect in the next several hours across the entire state.
The latest runs of the GFS, NAM and HRRR computer models remain in good agreement. Two low pressure systems currently located in western and eastern North Carolina are forecast to merge together into a strong winter storm near the Virginia coast by this evening. This storm is then forecast to move north along the Delaware coast up to the New Jersey coast overnight. The storm is then expected to turn to the east and move south of Long Island during rush hour Thursday morning and then east of Cape Cod by Thursday afternoon. The following forecast is based on a blend of the three computer models:
This Afternoon: Cloudy with highs in the mid 20’s to around 30 F. Northeast winds gusting to 20 - 25 MPH by late afternoon.
This Evening and Overnight: Snow is forecast to spread into the state from southwest to northeast between 5:00 – 8:00 PM. The snow is forecast to become very heavy at times between 10:00 PM and 4:00 AM with snowfall rates between 1.5” – 3.0” per hour. The snow should be dry and will stick to the roads very quickly but is not expected to stick to trees or powerlines. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 20’s with wind chills in the single digits. Strong northeast gusting to 30 - 40 MPH at times will also cause some blowing and drifting of the snow reducing visibility to near zero at times. Driving overnight will be very hazardous. Minor coastal flooding can be expected around the time of high tide just after midnight from Greenwich to East Haven.
Thursday Morning: Moderate to heavy snow early in the rush hour is expected to taper off to lighter snow by 9:00 AM. The impact on the morning rush hour is expected to be moderate to major especially on roads that are not fully plowed overnight. Continued north winds may cause some additional blowing and drifting of snow thru the rush hour.